The state of the UK post-Brexit

The Brexit referendum of 2016 set the UK on a new path but, just as the hard Brexit arrangements negotiated by Boris Johnson were being implemented, the UK was hit by the first of two major external shocks, the COVID-19 pandemic, which throttled economies around the globe; then the war in Ukraine caused the prices of food and fuel to soar.  This has led to a cost of living crisis and, while Brexit is not the main cause, it has exacerbated the situation in at least three ways: the value of Sterling fell significantly following the referendum making imports more expensive, the new arrangements impose friction on trade, particularly with our largest and closest partner (taking the EU as a whole), and freedom of movement has magnified labour shortages.

In economic terms it was a tragedy that the parts of the UK most dependent on trade with the EU voted most strongly to leave.  However, many people voting to leave wanted to restore national sovereignty, independent of the EU, particularly to gain control over immigration.  The UK now has that sovereignty, but has it the ability to control immigration?  Freedom from the EU also allows the UK to negotiate deals with other trading partners, and bilateral deals have been negotiated with Australia and with New Zealand.  The UK has also joined the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership.  The Office for Budget Responsibility now assesses the benefits from these trading arrangements to be tiny, while it estimates that the UK economy will be 4% smaller than it would be without Brexit.

Anand Menon is Professor of European Politics and Foreign Affairs at King’s College London.  He also directs the UK in a Changing Europe project.  His areas of research interest include the policies and institutions of the European Union, European security, and British politics.  He contributes regularly to both print and broadcast media.  He is co-editor of the Oxford Handbook of the European Union (OUP, 2012), and co-author of Brexit and British Politics (Polity 2018).  He is a trustee of Full Fact, a member of the Strategic Council of the European Policy Centre, a Council member of the European Council on Foreign Relations and an associate fellow of Chatham House.